February was not an auspicious start to Obama's record budget deficit-busting plans. The Daily Treasury Statement for the full month of February was just released, and it disclosed that while corporate tax withholdings, net of refunds, actually climbed marginally to $3.4 billion from $(3.4) billion in February 2009, individual tax withholdings plunged to a multi-year low of $30.7 billion. Combined, the two items also posted a multi low of $34 billion, less than the previous recent low from February 2009 when the first leg of the Greater Depression was allegedly at its zenith (see chart below). We can't wait to hear how the "recession is over" brigade will paint this particular data point.
Here's the monthly data:
And here's the trend over the past 18 months using a rolling 12-month average (to smooth variations):
The government keeps spending -- even looking for new ways to spend -- in the face of this sort of revenue trend. Deficits have nowhere to go but up, and with them, interest rates.